Crude oil demand growth forecast
5 Nov 2019 5 (Xinhua) -- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for global medium- and long-term oil demand 19 Aug 2019 The global oil demand growth forecast for 2019 remains at 1.14 million barrels per day (mb/d), with expectations for global oil demand to reach 11 Oct 2019 The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its oil demand growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 by 0.1 million barrels a day (mb/d) due to 13 Jun 2019 The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut its forecast for global oil demand growth and warned of further potential 12 Sep 2019 The group also revised down its 2020 demand growth forecasts by 60Mbbls/d and now expects oil demand to increase by 1.08MMbbls/d YoY in
Firmer demand growth as the global economy strengthens and slower supply growth will contribute to balanced markets in the fourth quarter of 2020 and global oil inventory draws in 2021. EIA expects global liquid fuels inventories will decline by 0.4 million b/d in 2021. EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $43/b in 2020, down from an average of $64/b in 2019.
The EIA forecasts that, by 2025, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil will rise to $81.73/b. This figure is in 2018 dollars, which removes the effect of inflation. By 2030, world demand will drive oil prices to $92.98/b. If demand growth stays healthy and OPEC maintains disciplined regarding production, we expect to see average oil prices in the USD60-70/bbl range to 2020. After 2020, prices are likely to remain closer to USD60/bbl, due primarily to sluggish demand growth and continued production of shale oil in North America. Oil sands production is expected to reach 4.25 million b/d by 2035 from 2.9 million b/d in 2018 – a growth rate decline of 12% from last year’s forecast. Market Access is Key Canada has an opportunity to gain global market share, replacing less sustainably produced oil sources. OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) is part of the Organization’s commitment to market stability. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the oil industry.
Crude prices have headed higher on Tuesday, but the gains could prove to be short-lived. OPEC has revised its growth forecast for 2020, and unless it lowers
2 Aug 2017 Building a better crude oil price outlook model by dissecting the EIA AEO report. the growth in demand for crude oil has slowed down significantly. that updates their base case for long and short term oil price forecasts.
19 Feb 2020 Global oil demand growth will drop to 0.44 million barrels per day this year The company's average 2020 WTI forecast was lowered by $5 per
5 Nov 2019 5 (Xinhua) -- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for global medium- and long-term oil demand 19 Aug 2019 The global oil demand growth forecast for 2019 remains at 1.14 million barrels per day (mb/d), with expectations for global oil demand to reach 11 Oct 2019 The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its oil demand growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 by 0.1 million barrels a day (mb/d) due to 13 Jun 2019 The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut its forecast for global oil demand growth and warned of further potential 12 Sep 2019 The group also revised down its 2020 demand growth forecasts by 60Mbbls/d and now expects oil demand to increase by 1.08MMbbls/d YoY in
OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) is part of the Organization’s commitment to market stability. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the oil industry.
IEA reduces 2020 global oil demand growth forecast to 825,000 b/d. Global oil demand has been hit hard by the coronavirus and the widespread shutdown of China’s economy. Oil 2019, the annual IEA outlook for global oil markets, examines the key issues in demand, supply, refining and trade to 2024. This year, the report covers the following themes: a changed supply picture led by the rise of the United States in world markets thanks to rapidly-growing shale oil production, as it becomes a net exporter of crude oil and products; supply growth in the non-OPEC The EIA forecasts that, by 2025, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil will rise to $81.73/b. This figure is in 2018 dollars, which removes the effect of inflation. By 2030, world demand will drive oil prices to $92.98/b. If demand growth stays healthy and OPEC maintains disciplined regarding production, we expect to see average oil prices in the USD60-70/bbl range to 2020. After 2020, prices are likely to remain closer to USD60/bbl, due primarily to sluggish demand growth and continued production of shale oil in North America. Oil sands production is expected to reach 4.25 million b/d by 2035 from 2.9 million b/d in 2018 – a growth rate decline of 12% from last year’s forecast. Market Access is Key Canada has an opportunity to gain global market share, replacing less sustainably produced oil sources.
However, we also anticipate that demand growth will hit its peak in the early 2030s due to slow chemicals growth and peak transport demand driving down oil consumption. Still, to meet demand, E&P companies will need to add >40 MMb/d of new crude production, mostly from offshore and shale unsanctioned projects. The March OMR will have the usual data and projections through end-2020, but with abridged text due to the release of Oil 2020 on the same day (provided free of charge to OMR subscribers). In the June report, supply and demand forecasts will be extended to 2021. Nobody was able to forecast the crude oil price crash purely based on supply demand data. In other words we conclude that supply demand is useless in forecasting the big moves in crude oil. And as investors we are ONLY interested in big moves, not the peanuts. Leading Indicator: Intermarket dynamics, The Euro IEA, OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Forecasts. On Wednesday, OPEC lowered its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2020 to 0.99 million barrels per day.